Breeze Perspectives: Giuliani is gambling with his presidential campaign
Posted on January 14, 2008
Three states, three different outcomes, one big mess. That’s the state of the fight for the Republican nomination right now as the race has transformed itself into a free-for-all. This means the only real winner in all of this is former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Last year, Giuliani boldly gambled that he could win his party’s nomination by bypassing the early states and instead focusing on Florida’s primary on Jan. 29 and the 23 states holding primaries on Feb. 5 with the hope that none of the other candidates would be able to win enough of the early states to establish themselves as the front-runner. In other words, Giuliani’s campaign was predicting chaos, and so far it has been right.
Mike Huckabee won in Iowa and John McCain won New Hampshire; Mitt Romney won in Wyoming and he is leading in Michigan, while Fred Thompson has dug in for a final stand in South Carolina. A Romney win in Michigan and a Thompson or Huckabee victory in South Carolina would start things nicely as the race heads closer to Giuliani’s must-win state of Florida. But even if the scenario doesn’t work out exactly this way, “America’s Mayor” may be in the best overall shape of all the Republican candidates.
Aside from Giuliani, only John McCain has created a true, national strategy, yet he doesn’t have the resources to implement it. His win in New Hampshire generated enough momentum and money for him to go to Michigan and South Carolina, but he’ll need an upset in one of those to go on from there with any sustainable momentum.
Money is no problem for Romney, as he could fund his whole campaign by himself for the duration of the race, but he put so much into winning big in Iowa and New Hampshire that his campaign has effectively died after losing both those states decisively.
Huckabee will do well in states with large Christian conservative populations, but it’s unlikely that he will be able to compete with Giuliani and McCain in the much larger, more moderate primary states. He would look great as a vice-presidential running mate, but at this point it’s hard to see him as anything other than a regional candidate.
Of course, Giuliani will need a lot of luck for his strategy to fall into place. If McCain can pull off wins in both Michigan and South Carolina, the mayor will be in serious trouble. But any other result will work in his favor.
What is working to Giuliani’s advantage right now is the steady bombardment of negative attack ads in the early states by Romney, McCain and Huckabee as they jockey for position in the early primaries. While the mayor shows ads in Florida and the Feb. 5 states that highlight his positions on important issues and his own personal character, the other contenders have steadily released ad after ad attacking each other.
Since most people hate attack ads, Giuliani may be able to gain extra support from voters who are tired of watching all of the negative campaigning by simply sticking to his message. Also, since none of his competitors’ negative ads have been directed at him, Giuliani has been able to soften his image in comparison to the other candidates without spending a single dollar.
Most importantly of all, Giuliani is the only candidate that has the organizational strength to keep him ahead in all of the states that are critical to his campaign. He has invested so much in big states that his organization there is head and shoulders above that of any other challenger. In addition, while the other candidates have been fighting it out in the early states Giuliani has had Florida all to himself for months.
If Giuliani can win Florida, he will immediately take the delegate lead and erase all of the victories and momentum of the other candidates heading on to Feb. 5 to fight in states where his organization is vastly superior. Sure, his strategy might cost him the nomination but it also might be what wins it for him.
Tony Spadaccia is a freshman political science and business management major.
