The Real Story: Democratic race begins again
Self-consciousness shouldn’t prevail over reckless, sun-soaked abandon
It’s become a trend this election year: Just when we think we know what’s going to happen, everything changes. Before March 4, presidential candidate Barack Obama was viewed as the inevitable Democratic nominee and seemed poised to give rival candidate Hillary Clinton a knockout punch in Texas and Ohio, but key mistakes cost him dearly in both states.
Now the race is back to a stalemate, with Obama holding a slim lead in delegates. While it is almost impossible to know for sure who will get the nomination, the answers to these three questions will go a long way in deciding the fates of both candidates.
Will Florida and Michigan’s delegates be seated at the Democratic Convention?
The Democratic National Committee stripped both states of their delegates after they broke party rules by holding early primaries, rendering the results virtually meaningless. Clinton won both states and obviously wants the delegates seated, but Obama opposes it, arguing that he followed party rules and removed his name from the ballot in Michigan and never campaigned in Florida.
Recently the governors of both states met to urge Democratic leaders to reconsider their decision, yet DNC Chairman Howard Dean doesn’t plan to change the rules. But with the race so close and a combined 366 delegates available to be won, Dean may have no choice but to either seat the delegates or allow new primaries to be held.
Which candidate will get more media scrutiny?
Until the end of February, the answer has clearly been Hillary Clinton. The media has gone after the Clintons for months over their past scandals, but Obama has gotten as close to a free pass as a presidential candidate can ever hope for and it helped him to win 11 consecutive primaries and caucuses.
But recently, the trend has reversed. Together, continued complaints by the Clinton campaign and two “Saturday Night Live” skits which satirized journalists spellbound by Obama’s candidacy have shamed the mainstream media into taking a much harder look at him. Consequently, he now has to answer tough questions about everything from his ties to shady individuals like Tony Rezko to his habit of voting “present” in the Illinois legislature.
His campaign has had a difficult time handling the increased scrutiny from the media and Obama himself made costly mistakes that served to amplify that negative coverage and helped Clinton win Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island on March 4.
With critical primaries coming up in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, neither candidate can afford to look bad or worse, weak. Like it or not, the media will play a key role in deciding the remaining contests and whomever receives more favorable coverage will likely emerge with the nomination in August.
How will the superdelegates vote?
Without a doubt, this is the most important question that remains. Even if Clinton or Obama won every remaining state, neither would get the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination. Ultimately the race will be won by the candidate that wins over the most superdelegates, a group of 796 Democratic Party leaders and elected officials who cast their votes at the Democratic National Convention rather than in their states’ primary or caucus. They differ from the pledged delegates in that they can vote for whomever they want regardless of their states’ outcome, while the pledged delegates “pledge” to vote for a certain candidate and are chosen in an approximate ratio to their candidate’s share of the vote.
Since neither candidate can win the nomination solely on pledged delegates, both Clinton and Obama are fighting hard for every superdelegate, with Clinton leading 247 to 211. But, this is worrying some party leaders as Obama wins state after state because it raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for Democrats: Obama winning the popular vote and pledged delegates but losing the nomination because of the superdelegates, who tend to favor Clinton.
With many Democrats still unwilling to accept the election of President Bush in 2000, the idea that the Democratic candidate could win the nomination in a similar fashion could tear the party apart. If Obama wins the popular vote but loses the nomination to Clinton because of the superdelegates, it could be 1968 all over again.
Tony Spadaccia is a freshman political science and business management major.
