Under Review (Commentary)
The Colonial may be stuck with just one teamPosted on March 13, 2008
When March Madness rolls around, an acquaintance that never played basketball will probably win your bracket pool.
If you have a favorite school that makes the 65-team field you might pick it to pull off a couple upsets, and it might crumble in the face of its first-round opponent’s full court press — losing the game and more importantly losing your bracket points.
But with all the excitement that surrounds the national event, you won’t have much else to complain about. On the other hand, many of the teams that are scrambling for bids to the Big Dance will be sent instead to the National Invitation Tournament. The NIT, the NCAA Tournament’s ugly stepsister, serves as an alternative for teams after their resumes are turned down by the NCAA tournament selection committee.
There will be examples of this across the country, but let’s use the Colonial Athletic Association to examine the phenomena of being snubbed. There’s one Colonial team that still harbors hopes of an at-large bid to the NCAAs, and it has proven it can compete with powerhouse schools.
No, I’m not talking about George Mason — the Patriots are already in after beating William & Mary in the CAA tournament final and receiving the conference’s automatic NCAA bid. Virginia Commonwealth is the team whose hopes have yet to be realized, and the Rams must wait three days for Selection Sunday to know their fate.
George Mason’s Cinderella run to the Final Four two years ago epitomized the unpredictability of the NCAAs, and VCU’s opening round upset of Duke last year again localized the impact of tournament action. But in 2008, the CAA is in danger of sending only one team to the Big Dance for the first time in three years.
William & Mary’s upset of VCU in the CAA tournament semifinals Sunday severely jeopardized the Rams’ chances of making the NCAAs. ESPN’s “Bracketologist” Joe Lunardi has VCU pegged as one of the last four teams out of the tournament, along with Syracuse, Arizona State, and Florida, as of Wednesday according to ESPN.com.
It’s funny, because a day earlier VCU fans were yelling at William & Mary coach Tony Shaver, giving him advice they must now regret. The 2008 CAA Coach of the Year walked by press row during the second half of the VCU-Towson quarterfinal game and smiled when VCU fans urged him to beat Old Dominion in Saturday’s second quarterfinal game. VCU fans thought William & Mary would be an easy victory.
Unfortunately for those fans, their thinking was wrong and the Tribe derailed VCU’s path to the NCAAs the following day.
The Rams have quality wins against Houston and Maryland, which rank 70th and 72nd respectively in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), but both of those teams are arguably worse off than VCU as far as at-large bids to the NCAAs are concerned. The Rams are ranked 54th in the RPI, which takes into account a team’s winning percentage, its opponents’ winning percentage and the winning percentage of those opponents’ opponents.
But there are only 34 at-large bids available. While VCU won the CAA by three games with a 15-3 conference record, the conference ranks only 13th in overall RPI standings. It will be tough for the NCAA tournament selection committee to rationalize putting the Rams (24-7) in over major conference teams with similar records.
Whatever happens, my advice is this: be careful whom you cheer for, because you might not know what you’re getting yourself into. Losing to William & Mary, a team ranked 156 in the RPI, might turn out to be the dagger that dashes VCU’s NCAA tournament hopes.
